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Coronavirus: could it be burning out after 20% of a population is infected?

30/6/2020

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Coronavirus: could it be burning out after 20% of a population is infected?

Is coronavirus over in some cities? StreetVJ/Shutterstock
Paul W Franks, Lund University and Joacim Rocklöv, Umeå University

More than half a million people have died from COVID-19 globally. It is a major tragedy, but perhaps not on the scale some initially feared. And there are finally signs that the pandemic is shuddering in places, as if its engine is running out of fuel. This has encouraged many governments to relinquish lockdowns and allow everyday life to restart, albeit gingerly.

The spread of SARS-CoV-2 has been difficult to predict and understand. On the Diamond Princess cruise ship, for example, where the virus is likely to have spread relatively freely through the air-conditioning system linking cabins, only 20% of passengers and crew were infected. Data from military ships and cities such as Stockholm, New York and London also suggest that infections have been around 20% – much lower than earlier mathematical models suggested.

This has led to speculation about whether a population can achieve some sort of immunity to the virus with as little as 20% infected – a proportion well below the widely accepted herd immunity threshold (60-70%).

The Swedish public health authority announced in late April that the capital city, Stockholm, was “showing signs of herd immunity” – estimating that about half its population had been infected. The authority had to backtrack two weeks later, however, when the results of their own antibody study revealed just 7.3% had been infected. But the number of deaths and infections in Stockholm is falling rather than increasing – despite the fact that Sweden hasn’t enforced a lockdown.

Hopes that the COVID-19 pandemic may end sooner than initially feared have been fuelled by speculation about “immunological dark matter”, a type of pre-existing immunity that can’t be detected with SARS-CoV-2 antibody tests.

Antibodies are produced by the body’s B-cells in response to a specific virus. Dark matter, however, involves a feature of the innate immune system termed “T-cell mediated immunity”. T-cells are produced by the thymus and when they encounter the molecules that combat viruses, known as antigens, they become programmed to fight the same or similar viruses in the future.

Studies show that people infected with SARS-CoV-2 indeed have T-cells that are programmed to fight this virus. Surprisingly, people never infected also harbour protective T-cells, probably because they have been exposed to other coronaviruses. This may lead to some level of protection against the virus – potentially explaining why some outbreaks seem to burn out well below the anticipated herd immunity threshold.

Young people and those with mild infections are more likely to have a T-cell response than old people – we know that the reservoir of programmable T-cells declines with age.

In many countries and regions that have had very few COVID-19 cases, hotspots are now cropping up. Take Germany, which quickly and efficiently battled the virus and has had one of the lowest death rates among the large northern European countries.

Here, the R number – reflecting the average transmission rate – has risen again, below 1 until June 18, but rocketing to 2.88 just days later, only to drop again a few days later. It may be tempting to argue that this could be because the hotspots never got close to the 20% infection that was seen in other regions.

But there are counter examples, albeit particularly in older and immunocompromised populations. In the Italian COVID-19 epicenter in Bergamo, a town where one in four residents are pensioners, 60% of the population had antibodies by early June.

60% of people in Bergamo have antibodies. angellodeco/Shutterstock

The same is true in some prisons: at the Trousdale Turner Correctional Center in Hartsville, US, 54% of inmates had tested positive for COVID-19 by early May. And more than half of the residents in some long-term care facilities have also been infected.

Genes and environment

So how do we explain this? Could people in places with higher rates of positive antibodies have a different genetic make-up?

Early in the pandemic, there was much speculation about whether specific genetic receptors affected susceptibility to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Geneticists thought that DNA variation in the ACE2 and TMPRSS2 genes might affect susceptibility to, and severity of, infection. But studies so far have shown no compelling evidence supporting this hypothesis.

Early reports from China also suggested that blood types may play a role, with blood type A raising risk. This was recently confirmed in studies of Spanish and Italian patients, which also discovered a new genetic risk marker termed “3p21.31”.

While genetics may be important, the environment also matters. It is well known that airborne transmission of droplets is enhanced in colder climates. Super-spreading events in several meat production facilities where the indoor climate is cold suggest this has enhanced contagion. People also tend to spend more time indoors and in close proximity during inclement weather.

Warm weather, however, brings people together, albeit outdoors. Indeed, June has been uncharacteristically hot and sunny in many northern European countries, causing parks and beaches to be overrun and social distancing rules flouted. This will likely drive contagion and cause new COVID-19 outbreaks in the weeks to come.

Yet another factor is how interpersonal interactions affect contagion. Some previous models have assumed that people interact in the same way regardless of age, well-being, social status and so forth. But this isn’t likely to be the case – young people, for example, are likely to have more acquaintances than the elderly. Accounting for this reduces the herd immunity threshold to around 40%.

Will COVID-19 disappear?

The lockdowns enforced far and wide, combined with the responsible actions of many citizens, have undoubtedly mitigated the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and saved lives. Indeed, in cases such as Sweden – where lockdown was eschewed and social distancing rules were relatively relaxed – the virus has claimed an order of magnitude more lives than in its pro-lockdown neighbours, Norway and Finland.

But it is unlikely that lockdowns alone can explain the fact that infections have fallen in many regions after 20% of a population has been infected – something that, after all, happened in Stockholm and on cruise ships.

That said, the fact that more than 20% of people have been infected in other places means that the T-cell hypothesis is unlikely to be the sole explanation either. Indeed, if a 20% threshold does exist, it applies to only some communities, depending on interactions between many genetic, immunological, behavioural and environmental factors, as well as the prevalence of pre-existing diseases.

Understanding these complex interactions is going to be necessary if one is to meaningfully estimate when SARS-CoV-2 will burn itself out. Ascribing any apparent public health successes or failures to a single factor is appealing – but it is unlikely to provide sufficient insight into how COVID-19, or whatever comes next, can be defeated.The Conversation

Paul W Franks, Professor of Genetic Epidemiology, Lund University and Joacim Rocklöv, Professor of Epidemiology, Umeå University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.


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CORONA VIRUS RESOURCES
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DIE ZERSTÖRUNG DES CORONA HYPES

29/6/2020

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APOLOGIES TO MY ENGLISH READERS:
THIS BLOG AND EMBEDDED VIDEO IS ENTIRELY IN GERMAN

​Inhaltsübersicht und Quellen:
​bitte beachten - die jeweiligen Nummern zeigen die Abschnitte in diesem Video an, sind jedoch nicht auf das eingebettete Video koordiniert, sondern öffnen das Video in einem neuen Fenster an der gewählten Stelle.
00:01​ Einleitung 00:55 Basis-Fakten 04:12 1. Die Zahlen 09:21 2. Die Argumente 16:20 3. Der Test 20:40 4. Die Maßnahmen 31:57 5. Die Experten 32:05 # Prof. Dr. Püschel, Rechtsmediziner 35:44 # Prof. Dr. Streeck, Virologe 36:06 # Prof. Dr. Mölling, Virologin 37:09 # Prof. DDr. Haditsch, Virologe, Mikrobiologe und Infektionsepidemiologe 40:48 # Prof. Dr. Bhakdi, Mikrobiologe und Infektionsepidemiologe 43:32 # Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg, Lungenfacharzt und Epidemiologe 47:22 # Dr. Claus Köhnlein, Internist 48:47 # Edward Snowden 50:15 # Dr. Raphael Bonelli, Psychiater, Neurowissenschaftler und system. Psychotherapeut 58:02 Schlussbemerkung
Eine reichliche Quellenübersicht is hier zu finden für die jeweiligen Abschnitte in diesem Video:
QUELLEN
▲
​Es lohnt sich hier zu recherchieren, Links zu der jeweiligen Fachliteratur bzw Videos
Einige Quellenhinweise sind  an CIDM.online gerichtet
​▼

CIDM.online inhalt
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corona virus resources
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gratuitous click-bait - it just takes you to my home page.
Don't forget, I am first and foremost a artist.
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Changes to my Merchandise sites

25/6/2020

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Please be advised that I am no longer associated with Printful. I deleted the Store App for it and closed my account there. Disregard any pop-up advertisement on my website for any items offered through Printful. The "shopping cart"  that appears on top of my website is an error that hopefully goes away, since I do not have an integrated web shop on here anymore! 

I HAVE PRINT SERVICES AND MERCHANDISE WEBSITES SET UP AT OTHER SITES,
THE LINKS TO WHICH YOU FIND ON EVERY PAGE ON THE FOOTER.
​You could also consult my LINKS page.


Additionally, on every artwork page there are links where prints of my art are available.
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covid-19 - more questions & A few answers

8/6/2020

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Photo by cottonbro from Pexels

MORE QUESTIONS & A FEW ANSWERS

Firstly, allow me a bit of self-promotion - we get to the serious questions after this:
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If you must wear a mask, then it should be one of my designer masks! .... like this one, for example, people will for sure keep their distance!
As I am doing research, I am asking questions to which I do not always receive adequate answers.
​So I keep digging. Here are some ABSTRACTS from which I hope to build my case:
FROM CONVERSATIONS I HAD ON WHATSAPP AND FACEBOOK:
(​translate to English and show side by side with German)
​
WhatsApp: 
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 ​Angst vor CoV bremst Öffi-Verkehr
(▲ article in German)
ENGLISH Comments
Talk about 100,000 dead first, then wonder that people are scared and afraid!
​A political failure at all levels!
How does it look like:
Austrian Ministry of Health
Dashboard

So at this time 437 people are currently sick in all of Austria! Statistically speaking, what are the chances that you will encounter one of them (who should be in quarantine) on the public transport in Vienna, and he will then also cough on us!
Quote from the text:
"In order to reverse the trend again, the company is trying to reduce the fear of infection among passengers. On the one hand, reference is made to the study by AGES (Agency for Health and Food Security) presented on May 6 that no cluster infections had been reported so far -
meaning no occurrence of frequent cases in public transportation."
DEUTSCHE Kommentare
​Zuerst über 100.000 Tote reden, dann wundern sie sich das die Menschen verschreckt sind und sich fürchten!
​Ein politisches Versagen auf allen Ebenen! 
Wie sieht es aus:
Österreichisches Gesundheitsministerium
​Dashboard

Also momentan 437 Aktuell Erkrankte in ganz Österreich! Statistisch gesehen, was sind die Chancen dass man einen davon (der sich ja in Quarantäne befinden sollte)  auf den Öffis in Wien begegnet der uns dann auch noch anhustet! 
Zitat von dem Text:
​"Um den Trend wieder umzukehren, bemüht sich das Unternehmen, die Angst vor einer Ansteckung bei den Fahrgästen zu nehmen. Einerseits verweist man auf die am 6. Mai präsentierte Studie der AGES (Agentur für Gesundheit und Ernährungssicherheit), wonach bisher kein einziger Infektions-Cluster – also das Auftreten gehäufter Fälle – in Öffis aufgetreten sei."
Facebook: 

The restrictions don't stop until there is a vaccine or an effective drug.

I really don't want to be vaccinated with the Gates  miracle syringe.

An effective drug? it never existed against corona viruses, there will never be. Tamiflu against a flu that was barely noticeable. And vaccine against swine flu where people got really sick afterwards. Now they want to play around with RNA, intervene in our DNA - this can have bad consequences because the test subjects would first have to be observed for years whether they might not get cancer.
We are upset about genetic engineering in our food, so  do we want to inject genetic engineering into people?

This week in the Zeit (magazine):
The vaccine inventors from BioNTech.

Links below are all in German:
​Im Team gegen Corona

​My Research:
Erste Teilnehmer von Biontech-Studie in den USA geimpft

​
Quote: "
In search of a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2, the first tests by the Mainz-based company Biontech and the US company Pfizer have also started in the United States. The companies said that the first subjects had been treated. The candidate vaccine is an experimental RNA vaccine."

They have been on the radar since April. Successful with stock market price through press releases. Much like the gold exploration companies - are always on the lookout. Now and then promising reports. And then: Bre-X​


Quote from Wer ist Biontech?

"The share price is, at least for many investors, the measure of a company's success. In the middle of the week, that of the Mainz-based biotechnology group Biontech on the US technology exchange Nasdaq rose to almost $ 56. That was an increase of more than 30 percent in a single day."


I am interested in the so-called dark figures. We have to wear masks because we could possibly be asymptomatic virus throwers. But my question: should I have caught the virus, be asymptomatic, then after some time my immune system should have successfully fought the virus - as well as every other sick person who has then recovered. Thus, like the recovered, I am part of herd immunity. That would also explain why the number of cases did not go up despite loosening, meetings, demos, hardware stores, Easter, Pentecost, etc.


I've had a lot of experience with corona virus. The last time I was sick in 2012 was when I was hit hard. Nothing since then, and hardly ever before.​
 Die Beschränkungen hören erst gänzlich auf, wenn es einen Impfstoff oder ein wirksames Medikament gibt. 

Mit dem Gates seiner Wunderspritze lass ich mich aber wirklich nicht impfen.

Ein wirksames Medikament? gab es niemals gegen Coronaviren, wird es auch nie geben. Tamiflu gegen eine Grippe die kaum bemerkbar war. Und Impfstoff gegen die Schweinegrippe wo Menschen daraufhin erst so recht krank wurden. Jetzt wollen sie mit RNA herumspielen, in unser DNA eingreifen - das kann schlechte Folgen haben denn die müssten Probanden erstmal jahrelang beobachten ob die nicht vielleicht Krebs davon bekommen.
Wir regen uns über Gentech in unserer Nahrung auf, und da wollen sie Gentech in Menschen einspritzen?

Diese Woche in der Zeit:
Die Impfstoff-Erfinder von BioNTech.

Link: Im Team gegen Corona

​Mein Research:
Erste Teilnehmer von Biontech-Studie in den USA geimpft

Zitat: "Auf der Suche nach einem Impfstoff gegen SARS-CoV-2 sind mittlerweile auch die ersten Tests des Mainzer Unternehmens Biontech und des US-Unternehmens Pfizer in den Vereinigten Staaten angelaufen. Die erste Probanden seien behandelt worden, teilten die Firmen nun mit. Es handelt sich bei der Kandidatvakzine um einen experimentellen RNA-Impfstoff."

Die sind schon seit April am Radar. Mit Börsenkurs durch Presseaussendungen erfolgreich. Ungefähr so wie die Goldexploration Firmen - sind immer auf der Suche. Ab und zu vielversprechende Meldungen. Und dann: Bre-X

Quote von Wer ist Biontech?

"Der Aktienkurs ist zumindest für viele Investoren das Maß für den Erfolg eines Unternehmens. Mitte der Woche ging der des Mainzer Biotechnologiekonzerns Biontech an der US-Technologiebörse Nasdaq bis auf fast 56 Dollar in die Höhe. Das waren ein Plus von mehr als 30 Prozent an einem einzige Tag.​"

Mich interessieren die sogenannten Dunkelziffern. Wir müssen ja Masken tragen weil wir möglicherweise asymptomatische Virenschleudern sein könnten. Meine Frage aber: sollte ich das Virus erwischt haben, asymptomatisch sein, dann müsste ja nach einiger Zeit mein Immunsystem das Virus erfolgreich bekämpft haben - sowie auch bei jedem anderen Erkrankten der dann genesen ist. Somit bin ich, eben so wie die Genesenen, ein Teil der Herdenimmunität. Das würde auch erklären warum die Fallzahlen trotz   Lockerungen, Versammlungen, Demos, Baumarkt, Ostern, Pfingsten usw nicht in die Höhe gegangen sind. 
​ 

Ich habe so einiges erlebt in Bezug auf Corona Viren. Letztes Mal war ich in 2012 krank, da hat es mich gut erwischt. Seither nichts mehr, und kaum je vorher.

The latest news from Prof. Hendrik Streeck and the Heinsberg Study
published June 7th 2020 in RP-ONLINE
article is in German, use Google Translate:

Bonner Virologe Streeck plädiert für „mehr Mut“ im Sommer
​Bonn virologist Streeck pleads for "more courage" in summer
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​Quote: "Virologist Hendrik Streeck sees an opportunity to fight the corona pandemic during the summer months. Partial immunity could possibly be built up in the population."
Zitat: "Bei der Bekämpfung der Corona-Pandemie sieht der Virologe Hendrik Streeck eine Chance während der Sommermonate. Es könne möglicherweise eine Teilimmunität in der Bevölkerung aufgebaut werden."​

PROMISING LINKS
I am quoting short excerpts from these articles
please click the links to read more:
ASYMPTOMATIC SPREAD MAKES TESTING KEY FOR COVID-19 FIGHT
MAY 15TH, 2020
POSTED BY JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY​
The prevalence of asymptomatic cases—people infected with the virus who can spread it to others but don’t feel sick—is one of the most challenging aspects of the coronavirus pandemic, researchers say.
Current testing methods can detect asymptomatic cases. When you are infected with the coronavirus, the tests are pretty sensitive to any presence of the virus. The most common test at the moment is a PCR test, which looks for the presence of the virus’s genetic material, and some of these are more sensitive than others.
read more

What it means to be immune to the coronavirus
April 14th 2020 in MASHABLE
​"The golden rule of immunology is if you are infected with a virus, get sick, and recover, you probably won't get reinfected with the same virus," said Mark Cameron, an immunologist at Case Western Reserve University who previously helped contain the outbreak of another deadly coronavirus, SARS, in 2003.
​Why, though, might a significant number of people have such mild (or no) symptoms to this new coronavirus? There could be genetic or health differences that make it more difficult for the coronaviruses to infect a cell. It's also possible that people with milder infections were only exposed to a tiny amount of the virus (like someone picking up just a few particles off a piece of mail versus an ER doctor getting sprayed with millions of viral particles). "It's possible that asymptomatic people were exposed to a much lower dose," said Brian Baker, a biochemist at the University of Notre Dame.
At the end of the day, this coronavirus may unwittingly help humanity tame the pandemic. While it's true that asymptomatic people can spread the virus when they're infected (that's why everyone must social distance right now), if one in four infected people are truly asymptomatic, that means that likely millions of people will ultimately develop immunity — whether they know it or not — and won't be able to spread the virus around until we get a vaccine. "That would be a good thing," said Baker. 
​"We can count on the fact that the vast majority of COVID infections will cause immunity," said Cameron, noting that a vaccine will then only add to the number of immune people. Ultimately, this is how we end this grim pandemic, now that we've failed to contain it.
read more

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CORONA VIRUS RESOURCES
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    OTTO RAPP

    OTTO RAPP

    This blog is primarily art related - for my photography please go to
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    Since April 2020 I have also dedicated a category of my blog to the current Corona Virus crisis.​​

    CORONA VIRUS

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